Khaberni - Energy expert Hashem Aql predicted that the current decline in global oil prices, especially Brent crude trading around 64 dollars per barrel as of November 19th, 2025, would likely drop below 60 dollars during the fourth quarter.
Aql explained that each dollar decrease in Brent reflects approximately 5 fils on the local fuel prices. After accounting for taxes and additional costs, the expectations indicate a decline ranging between 1-2% in the December pricing. Specifically, octane 90 gasoline will decrease by 5-10 fils per liter (from 845 fils to 835-840 fils), octane 95 gasoline will decrease by 5-10 fils per liter (from 1075 fils to 1065-1070 fils). Diesel is expected to decrease by 10-15 fils per liter (from 685 fils to 670-675 fils), with a possibility of stabilization if logistic costs increase. Regarding kerosene and household gas, Aql expected price stabilization (kerosene at 620 fils, and gas at 7 Dinars per 12.5 kg cylinder), according to opinion.
Aql clarified that the pricing mechanism adopted by the Oil Derivatives Pricing Committee in the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is based on calculating the average Brent prices for 30 days prior to announcing the pricing, which means that the current downward trend will reflect in next month's pricing.
He noted that the average price of Brent in October 2025 was around 63.95 dollars per barrel, while the average until November 19th was about 64.5 dollars, expecting that the 30-day average used will be lower than the average in November which witnessed a decrease ranging between 0.5-1% on gasoline.
Aql highlighted that these forecasts are unofficial and may change following American oil inventory reports or forthcoming OPEC+ decisions, which suggest the possibility of increased production, further contributing to the decline in global prices.
He added that geopolitical risks remain a significant factor in pricing dynamics, alongside the possibility of a sharp production cut which could lead to a shortfall in supply. Conversely, the decline in global demand due to the shift towards electric vehicles, renewable energy, and global economic weakness has led to further price reductions.
Aql concluded by affirming that the era of high gasoline prices has ended, with no return in sight given the current data and international market trends.
