Khaberni - After Jordan was affected by a state of atmospheric instability followed by a classified depression from November 13 to 15, it led — thankfully and gratefully — to rainfall in several areas, most significantly in Ajloun Governorate. In this report issued by the Arab Weather Center, we assess the reality of the rainy season in Jordan after the recent rains, which seemed very modest before the recent rainy events.
Here is a report from the Arab Weather Center diagnosing the rainy situation in Jordan:
Firstly: What do we mean by rainy performance and how is it assessed after the recent rains?
Rainy performance is defined as the percentage ratio of the cumulative rainfall compared with the presumed cumulative amount of rainfall up to a certain date, which is calculated based on what was recorded on the ground over the past thirty years. Comparing what has been achieved in terms of actual rainfall this rainy season, we find that the rainy performance in the kingdom has become acceptable, and there is a possibility of improved rainfall, and that blessings are forthcoming, God willing. Climate data from the kingdom shows that the nature of rainy seasons in the kingdom fluctuates due to Jordan's geographical location between two climates (the desert climate and the Mediterranean climate). Climate data also shows repeated occurrences of rainfall interruptions in the kingdom's climatic archive, specifically in autumn.
Secondly: The amount of rainfall achieved relative to what was supposed until (18-11-2025)
The statistical rainfall report shows that most areas of the kingdom register an acceptable rainy performance so far after the recent rains. When comparing what has been achieved in terms of actual rainfall this rainy season with what was supposed to fall (which is calculated based on what was recorded on the ground over the past thirty years), we find that some areas of the kingdom are suffering from very weak rainy performance, namely: Ma'an, Qatraneh, Jafr, and Aqaba, where the rainy performance in these areas does not exceed 18%.
However, there are areas that have achieved — thankfully — excellent rainfall exceeding the presumed averages, namely: the northern areas (126%), in addition to the northern Jordan Valley (121%), and the southern Jordan Valley (268%), and other governorates that have come close to the expected averages, such as: the southwestern areas (80%), the central Jordan Valley (91%), and the central eastern areas (75%), while modest to acceptable rainy performance was recorded in the rest of the areas such as the central-western areas (66%) and the eastern areas (54%).
In a positive matter, specialists at Arab Weather confirm that the final total of the rainy season does not rely solely on the rainfall during the autumn season, and that there have been many seasons where autumn did not witness any good rainfall while the final total rainfall for the season ended with amounts around or above the seasonal averages.
Fourthly: The reason for the significant variation in rainy performance between the governorates of the kingdom
Specialists at Arab Weather believe that the reason for the significant variation in rainy performance between the governorates of the kingdom is due to the pattern of the weather system that affected the kingdom, which took the form of states of atmospheric instability characterized by randomness and irregular geographical distribution in the precipitation of thunderstorms, and the same did not prevent heavy rainfall in some parts of the kingdom. The kingdom was affected by one depression for one day during which rainfall was regular, starting in the north then systematically moving to the center and then to the southern regions of the kingdom, but it was not continuous to the extent that it adjusted the rainy performance in the southern and eastern areas.
We ask the Almighty God to provide us with rain and blessings for the country.
