Khaberni - Health authorities warn of an early start to the flu season due to a new mutation in the H3N2 virus that could make the upcoming winter the harshest in a decade.
Several countries, including the United Kingdom and Japan, are experiencing an early and unusual start to this year's flu season, amid concerns that a new mutation in the H3N2 virus will lead to a harsh winter increasing the pressure on healthcare systems.
Virology experts indicate that a sudden mutation that appeared mid-last summer enhanced the virus’s ability to evade immunity acquired from previous infections or vaccinations, accelerating its spread and setting the outbreak date more than a month earlier than usual. Laboratory analyses have revealed seven new mutations in the strain, an unprecedented development outside of the flu season.
Professor Derek Smith from Cambridge University confirmed that these mutations “launched a rapid wave of infections” that will spread globally within weeks, while Professor Nicola Lewis from the Francis Crick Institute described the situation as "unusual and worrisome," noting that the virus is "more capable of transmission" than any previous season.
Estimates show that the reproductive rate (R) this year reached 1.4 compared to 1.2 usually, meaning that every hundred cases produce about 140 new infections, which explains the sharp increase in cases after schools resumed and temperatures dropped.
Professor Christophe Fraser from Oxford University expects this season to be “among the worst in the past decade.”
The new mutation belongs to the H3 family, known for its high fatality, especially among the elderly and vulnerable groups. Last season, the UK recorded about eight thousand flu-related deaths, while in the 2022-2023 season, about 16 thousand deaths occurred according to the National Health Service (NHS), which warned of a potentially severe winter.
The NHS has issued an urgent vaccination call after providing 2.4 million new doses this week, urging people to get vaccinated quickly, although this year's vaccine formula does not fully match the new variant, as it was designed before detecting the mutations. Scientists confirm that the vaccine still offers "effective protection against serious complications and hospitalization."
Meanwhile, Japan is experiencing a similar early outbreak that prompted some schools to temporarily close to contain the infections, in measures different from the restrictions imposed during the Coronavirus pandemic. Despite prevailing concerns, experts affirm that the course of the season "remains open to possibilities," but all indications so far "point to a difficult and long winter."
