Khaberni - Despite US President Donald Trump talking about the possibility of normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, it is unlikely that this will happen during Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's upcoming visit to Washington, according to Reuters.
According to the Reuters agency, "Establishing diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, after decades of hostility, would shake the political and security landscape in the Middle East and could strengthen American influence in the region."
Trump previously said he hoped Saudi Arabia would "very soon" join the Abraham Accords of 2020, which other Muslim countries have signed to normalize relations with Israel.
But Reuters reported from two Gulf sources that Saudi Arabia has clarified to Israel through diplomatic channels that its position has not changed and that it will not join those agreements without a roadmap for establishing a Palestinian state.
The sources mentioned to Reuters that the goal is avoiding any diplomatic slip-ups and ensuring the Saudi and American stances align before making public statements.
One of them explained that the goal was to prevent any confusion during the White House talks on November 18 or afterwards.
According to Jonathan Panikoff, former deputy for the National Intelligence Officer for the Middle East, it is unlikely that the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would "formally recognize the relations in the near future without at least a reliable path to establishing a Palestinian state."
Panikoff, who currently works at the Atlantic Council research center in Washington, suggested that Prince Mohammed bin Salman might try to leverage his influence with Trump to gain "clearer, stronger support for establishing a sovereign Palestinian state." The visit on November eighteen is Prince Mohammed's first to Washington since 2018.
The UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco have already joined the Abraham Accords to normalize relations with Israel, and Trump said he expects the agreements to be expanded soon.
On November 5, the American President said, "Many are joining the Abraham Accords now, and we hope Saudi Arabia will join very soon," without providing a timeline.
On October 17, Trump said in a televised interview: "I hope to see Saudi Arabia join the accords, and I hope to see other countries join. I believe that when Saudi Arabia joins, everyone will follow."
In this regard, the two Gulf sources emphasized that Riyadh has clarified to Washington that any step towards recognizing Israel must be part of a new framework, not just an extension of any agreement.
Given the Kingdom's status in the Islamic world, "recognizing Israel would be more than just a diplomatic achievement; it's a highly sensitive national security issue linked to resolving one of the region's oldest and most complex conflicts, and such a step would be difficult to implement with the Arab public's current distrust of Israel, especially after the extensive military campaign in Gaza despite the currently announced fragile ceasefire," according to Reuters.
Manal Radwan, the Saudi Assistant Minister for Foreign Affairs, called for a clear, time-defined withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip and the deployment of an international protection force, and the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza and its support.
She stated that these steps are necessary for establishing a Palestinian state, which is a prerequisite for regional integration and the implementation of a two-state solution.
Regarding this, the sources mentioned to Reuters that Saudi Arabia currently does not see a possibility of fulfilling Trump's demand to normalize relations with Israel, especially in light of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's strong opposition to establishing a Palestinian state.
According to a Reuters analysis, Saudi officials said that progress on this issue depends on concessions that neither Washington nor Israel are currently willing to make.
Reuters added that Saudi officials apparently intend to steer the Trump meeting with Prince Mohammed bin Salman towards defense cooperation and investment, and are wary of the politically charged issue of normalizing relations with Israel overshadowing the agenda.
The meeting is expected to lead to an extremely important defense agreement that defines the scope of US military protection for the de facto ruler of the world's largest oil-exporting country, and enhances the US military foothold in the Gulf region. However, the scope of this potential agreement has been reduced, according to what Reuters reported.
Two other Gulf sources and three Western diplomats told Reuters that the defense agreement does not amount to a full treaty ratified by Congress that Riyadh had sought in exchange for the promised normalization with Israel.
The agreement, loosely drafted similar to an arrangement with Qatar issued through an executive order in September, aims to expand cooperation to include cutting-edge technology and defense.
The two Gulf sources told Reuters that Riyadh pressed for clauses that allow future US administrations to elevate the agreement to a full treaty, a guarantee for the continuity of a non-binding agreement susceptible to cancellation by future presidents.
In this context, David Makovsky, a researcher at the Washington Institute where he manages a project on Arab-Israeli relations, said: "It's not the treaty they want, they might not see it as ideal but it's a cornerstone (for concluding a full treaty)."
Western diplomats and Gulf sources noted that linking the defense agreement to normalization with Israel and establishing the Palestinian state produced a complex negotiation equation, prompting Riyadh and Washington to settle for a limited defense agreement in the absence of progress on the other two tracks, indicating that this settlement might eventually evolve into a full treaty if the normalization process advances.
Regarding this, Abdulaziz Al-Sager, head of the Gulf Research Center based in Saudi Arabia, said: "Saudi-American negotiations saw a drastic change in the environment and circumstances after the developments in Gaza since October seven," explaining that the direct link between normalizing relations with Israel and establishing the Palestinian state is still in place, but Riyadh now wants to address its national security requirements separately.
He added: "The Saudi stance is clear in saying that meeting US demands for Saudi national security will help shape the Saudi stance towards regional issues, including resolving the Palestinian conflict."
According to Reuters, the prospect of concluding a defense agreement similar to a NATO treaty is viewed as far-fetched, given the changing regional calculations and political obstacles in Washington.
