Khaberni - As winter approaches in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, eyes always turn towards the capital, Amman, which occasionally experiences joyful snowfalls that engulf the city in its enchanting white color.
And every year the same question is repeated: Will it snow this year in Amman?
Some look forward to seeing snow as a beautiful and refreshing phenomenon, while others fear its impact on traffic and daily life. Amid these conflicting expectations, we present in this article a comprehensive analysis of the weather forecasts for 2025 – 2026, and the factors that may lead to snowfall, with a glimpse at some of the historical instances that the capital Amman has witnessed.
The climate of Amman and its relationship to snowfall
• Amman is a city with a unique climate, combining mountain and Mediterranean climates.
• The city is situated at an elevation ranging from 700 to 1050 meters above sea level, which makes its winter temperatures lower than most other cities in the kingdom.
• Typically, temperatures in January and February drop below 4 degrees Celsius on some nights, creating the right conditions for snowfall if this is accompanied by a cold and wet low-pressure system coming from Europe or Turkey.
• Historically, Amman has experienced notable snowfalls in 1992, 2013, and 2022, covering wide areas of the city and making it the talk of local and Arab media.
• However, this does not happen every year, as snowfall in Amman is linked to several complex weather factors interacting at the same time, making accurate prediction relatively difficult.
Factors affecting snowfall
Snowfall does not depend only on cold weather but also requires a combination of specific weather conditions:
• A cold air mass coming from the north or west: usually from the Black Sea or Eastern Europe, which lowers temperatures below zero.
• Sufficient moisture in the air layers: because cold alone is not enough; there must be humid clouds capable of forming snow crystals.
• Low surface temperatures: to less than two degrees Celsius.
• Geographic elevation: the higher the location above sea level, the greater the chances of snowfall. Therefore, areas like Sweileh, Al-Jubaiha, and Marj Al-Hamam witness more snowfall than downtown.
Jordanian Meteorological Department's forecasts for winter 2025 – 2026
According to reports from the Jordanian Meteorological Department and regional weather sites like ArabiaWeather and Wisemeteo, the initial forecasts for the winter season of 2025 – 2026 suggest the following:
• Generally cold winter, with temperatures lower than the annual average during some periods.
• A relative deficit in rainfall amounts compared to previous seasons, meaning that the quantity of rain might be slightly less than usual.
• The possibility of snowfall exists, especially in the mountainous heights such as West Amman, Al-Salt, and Ajloun, particularly during January and February.
• In downtown and low-lying areas, the condition may be limited to light snow showers or rain mixed with hail without significant accumulations.
• Climate models indicate that the highest likelihood of snowfall will be between mid-January and mid-February 2026, a period which typically sees the intensification of polar lows coming from the north.
What do the global models say?
According to reports from global weather sites like AccuWeather and Timeanddate, the following is expected:
• Chances of snowfall in Amman remain between 10% to 20% during the winter season.
• It is expected that the region will be affected this year by several short-lived cold lows that may bring snow showers on the highlands, but they will not result in widespread snowstorms as occurred in previous years.
• Maximum temperatures during December and January will range between 8 – 13 degrees Celsius during the day, and drop to around zero or below in some mountainous areas at night.
Snow in the Jordanian memory
Among the most significant snowstorms still etched in the memory of Jordanians:
• The 1992 storm: which covered the capital Amman with more than 50 cm of snow, causing schools and government departments to shut down for several days.
• The "Alexa" storm in 2013: which is the most famous in the last two decades, as the snow extended to most provinces of the kingdom.
• The 2022 storm: which came after years of relative absence of heavy snows, making Amman look like a European city covered in white.
These exceptional cases always remind Jordanians that snow might surprise them any year, even if initial forecasts do not indicate it.
Possibility of snowfall this year
Looking at all the current data, it can be said that:
• The possibility exists but is limited in the capital Amman.
• Elevated areas such as Sweileh, Al-Jubaiha, and Marj Al-Hamam might experience light to moderate snow showers if a strong cold low reaches them.
• As for downtown Amman and eastern areas, it is likely that the weather events will be limited to heavy rain or hail without notable snow accumulation.
• In other words, we might witness symbolic snowfall this winter, but it will not be widespread or long-lasting unless indicators change in the second half of the season.
Tips for preparing for winter
Even with a limited chance of snowfall, residents in Amman are advised to prepare well for winter:
• Check heating and chimneys before the onset of severe cold.
• Keep a stock of fuel or gas to avoid sudden cut-offs.
• Avoid driving during snowfalls or ice formation, especially in elevated areas.
• Follow weather forecasts regularly, as weather changes can be swift and unexpected.
• Keep alternative lighting means in case of power outages during strong lows.
Does climate change affect snowfall?
• Recent climate studies indicate that global climate change has led to clear changes in weather patterns in Jordan and the Arab region
• While some areas are becoming more humid or warmer, other areas are seeing a decrease in the number of snowy days.
• In Jordan, this has resulted in less frequent snowfall periods, but conversely, more intense when they occur due to sharp climatic fluctuations.
So, will it snow this year in Amman?
• The answer closest to reality is: Yes, but in a limited manner and for short intervals, especially in the western highlands of the capital and during January and February.
• As for heavy snowfall that closes roads and completely covers the city, its likelihood is weak according to the initial forecasts of the Meteorological Department for 2025 – 2026.
Nevertheless, the winter atmosphere in Amman remains beautiful and distinctive even without snow, with its cold weather, mountain breezes, and the warmth in homes.
Snow may not always be present, but it is always awaited — and it might surprise us on any cold night, bringing back the capital's white sparkle anew.
