Khaberni - Gold has recently witnessed a noticeable price surge, driven by conditions that can only be described as an exceptional blend of economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. The common phrase in markets is “this time it's different”; in the past, rising US interest rates have heavily pressured gold, but the precious metal has managed to break through record levels even in a high interest environment, suggesting that other factors - political and geopolitical - are currently driving the momentum according to TradingView / GoldPrice
Compared to today's gold prices
The data indicates that gold prices are trading at historically high levels (perhaps exceeding $4,200 per ounce in futures, or touching these levels) with minor daily variations where the approximate price revolves around high levels, and the latest data shows that gold has risen by more than 50% over one year in the context of strong performance.
Technical analysis indicators show the continuation of the upward trend, with buy signals at dips and expectations for reaching new higher ranges (levels like $4,400 might be indicated, with some analysts forecasting rises to $5,200 per ounce if the momentum continues) and gold is now in a position of historic strength, reflecting a structural shift in the preferences of investors and central banks.
The American political conflict
The American election cycle (especially the 2024 presidential elections and what follows) is one of the main drivers for fluctuating gold prices. The reason is that each major candidate represents a completely different economic and financial policy.
Trump’s tariffs and trade policies
The possible return of Donald Trump to the scene with threats of significantly increasing tariffs on imported goods represents a strong and sustainable driving factor for gold as tariffs raise the cost of imported goods, directly contributing to increasing domestic inflation. Gold is traditionally the best hedge against inflation. Tariffs stir a trade war with China and other nations. Any escalation in trade tensions negatively reflects on global economic growth and immediately pushes investors towards safe-haven assets.
Market movements towards gold and silver
The latest data indicates that market movements are not random, but reflect an increasing appetite for precious metals as safe havens as central banks, particularly from emerging markets, continue to buy record amounts of gold at a high rate in 2024 and 2025, driven by geopolitical uncertainty (conflicts, tensions) and a desire to diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar.
Gold and silver exchange-traded funds have seen positive cash inflows, indicating trust by institutional and individual investors in the sustainability of prices. Silver usually moves alongside gold, but it is also considered an industrial bet (used in solar energy and green technologies). The predictions for 2025 suggest strong rises in silver prices as well, reflecting the demand
Safe haven and industrial asset
Gold is in an unprecedented position supported by several strong pillars: the expectations of future reductions in US interest rates, record central bank purchases, and the geopolitical and trade tensions fueled by the American political conflict (especially the tariff policies).
Gold's rise to record numbers can continue as long as the global geopolitical and economic uncertainty persists. However, some experts warn that the current momentum might be too strong, making gold “highly risky as an investment” at current levels, and it may face sharp corrections if tensions suddenly decrease or if political situations in the United States stabilize.
