Khaberni - Between the only and last chance, the odds of qualification vary for the teams of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE to snatch the two direct qualification spots from Asia to the 2026 World Cup and avoid the Asian and then global playoffs.
Iraq and Saudi Arabia
The Saudi and Iraqi teams will clash in a fiery encounter on Tuesday in Jeddah in the last third round of the fourth stage of the Asian qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup.
Saudi Arabia had turned around its deficit against Indonesia and won 3-2 with a double by Firas Al-Buraikan last Wednesday in Jeddah, which hosted the second match the previous Saturday in Group Two and smiled at Iraq, which secured a late and difficult victory over Indonesia with a beautiful goal by Zidane Iqbal.
The French coach Hervé Renard's lineup will be missing defensive midfielder Mohamed Kanno, who was sent off in the encounter against Indonesia after coming on as a substitute at the end of the match.
Renard's confidence in Al Ahli's midfielder Saleh Abu Shamat, who only had 3 international caps, bore fruit as he scored the equalizing goal from a beautiful shot.
However, the coach, who is in his second stint with the "Green Falcons" after leading them in the 2022 World Cup, must be wary of his defense, which faced 17 Indonesian shots, including 10 on target.
Renard expressed his frustration at his team's inability to secure a more comfortable victory, saying, "We did not start the match well, but our response was excellent. At one stage of the match, we were leading 3-1 and had additional chances to score, and we should have completely settled the match."
About his next crucial match, the coach who previously led the Zambia and Ivory Coast national teams to the African Nations Cup title added, "We need to handle the second match intelligently in order to secure qualification for the World Cup."
On the other hand, Iraq failed to score in only 3 out of 16 matches since the second round, but doubts hover about the participation of their star striker Ayman Hussein, who missed the Indonesia match due to injury, although he participated in the last training sessions for the "Lions of Mesopotamia."
Since the arrival of coach Graham Arnold five months ago, the Australian has relied entirely on Hussein as a pure striker in the encounters against Jordan, Hong Kong, and Thailand, before Mohanad Ali emerged as the savior in the two matches of the King's Cup of Thailand, deciding the title last month thanks to his scoring skills.
The former coach of the Australian national team said, "We have not achieved anything yet. We won one game, which is good. I would like to send a message to all the Iraqi people and fans: do not celebrate yet, we still have one game left that we must win." Iraq is missing its central defender Zaid Tahseen, who was sent off at the end of the first match.
Two possibilities for Saudi Arabia and one chance for Iraq
No alternative but to win for Iraq.
Both winning and drawing will qualify Saudi Arabia for the 2026 World Cup because the "Green" team scored 3 goals against Indonesia.
Saudi Arabia tops the group with 3 points by virtue of goals scored over Iraq, meaning a draw is sufficient for them to reach the World Cup for the third consecutive time and the seventh in their history.
In addition to the two qualification opportunities, Saudi Arabia has the advantage of 3 more rest days than Iraq, which dreams of a second qualification to the global event, after the 1986 Mexico edition where they were eliminated in the first round.
Qatar and UAE
The UAE had previously qualified for the 1990 World Cup in Italy when they bowed out in the first round, and Qatar for the 2022 edition as the host country when they suffered 3 defeats in the group stage.
The UAE leads Group One with 3 points after turning around a defeat against Oman into a late 2-1 victory, leading by two points over Qatar who is second and Oman third, both having one point after a goalless draw.
The two teams know each other well having previously met in the third round of the current qualifiers, where the UAE won the first leg in Doha 3-1 and the second leg in Abu Dhabi 5-0.
However, veteran UAE goalkeeper Khalid Issa (36 years old), who won the best player award in the Oman match, warned of Qatar's strength "especially since the match will be in their home ground and among their fans."
He continued, "Despite our lead, we have not achieved anything yet, and the Qatar match will determine if we will realize our dream of qualifying for the World Cup."
The UAE enters the match buoyed by their victory over Oman with two goals scored by Marcos Meloni and Caio Lucas, after being behind until the 76th minute due to an own goal by their defender Kwame Auton.
Romanian Cosmin Olaroiu, coach of the UAE, said, "We have experienced players, and they had to deal with the pressure. Such matches show the strength of character and the mental aspect of the players, and those who manage that have the advantage."
He added, "The team will play with great confidence, especially with the significant fan support we received in the first match, and we hope to succeed in turning the dream into reality."
The UAE is guaranteed to at least enter the streamlined Asian playoff with a confrontation against either Iraq or Saudi Arabia, after Indonesia was ruled out with a second loss to the "Lions of Mesopotamia" 0-1 after the first against Saudi Arabia 2-3.
As for Qatar, it must be more effective offensively after failing to pose a clear threat against Oman, despite attempts by Akram Afif, Asia's best player in 2019 and 2023.
Moez Ali, top scorer of the qualifiers with 12 goals, will return to the starting line-up after being pushed by Spanish coach Lopetegui in the second half against Oman due to injury.
Lopetegui held onto Qatar’s chances "The draw result against Oman imposes on us the search for victory in the last match against the UAE for direct qualification".
Qatar expects significant fan support as regulations grant the host 92% of the capacity of the "Jassim bin Hamad" stadium, which holds approximately 14,000, compared to 8% for the UAE fans.
One chance for Qatar and two chances for the UAE
No alternative but victory for the Qatari team
Both winning and drawing will directly qualify the UAE White for the 2026 World Cup.
The first place team in each group qualifies directly for the World Cup, while the second-placed teams play a home and away match on the 13th and 18th of this month to reach the global playoff.
