Khaberni - Global oil prices continue to drop in 2025, after the price of Brent crude barrel decreased from $77 to $63 within a few months, due to increased production from OPEC+ countries and a significant decline in global demand.
Although this decline gradually reflects on fuel prices in Europe, experts warn that its effect on consumers is still limited and temporary.
Economists believe that the sharp decrease in prices is due to increased production, aimed at compensating for the decline in revenues amidst the global economic slowdown, especially in China, Europe, and the United States.
Experts point out that industrial slowdown in China and the decline in European energy demand, coupled with a strict monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve, led to a global economic slowdown and consequently, a decrease in oil consumption.
Market analysts predict that the barrel price will drop to about $58 by early 2026, and may touch $55 in spring 2027 if the global growth weakness persists.
French economic expert Emmanuel Luschiber mentioned that "the current decline reflects a structural imbalance between supply and demand more than it is a result of temporary factors," noting that "fuel prices do not decrease at the same rate as crude oil prices due to increased refining, transportation costs, and taxes."
He added: "In 2025, the old rule that says each dollar in the barrel price reduces one cent from the price of a liter of fuel no longer applies, as the market has become more sensitive to logistical and monetary factors."
Luschiber emphasized that the recent decline of the dollar against the euro has contributed to alleviating the impact of high energy costs on Europe, "but this does not mean that consumers will experience a significant price drop during the next winter."
Luschiber believes that the continuation of the decline until 2026 may force European governments to reconsider their energy and tax policies, to maintain market balance and ensure supply security, at a time when a global industrial recession is expected.
In turn, Patrick Artus, former research director at Natixis bank, professor at University of Paris Pantheon-Sorbonne, and member of the Economic Analysis Council of the French Prime Minister's office stated that the global price drop "appears to be good news for consumers, but it's a worrying indicator of an accelerated global economic recession."
He added to "Al Ayn News" that: "While oil prices decline at this pace, it means that global industrial demand is shrinking quickly. Therefore, the short-term benefit for European consumers may hide a longer-term recession risk for the global economy."
He added that Europe, despite benefiting from lower energy costs, faces a challenge in sustaining future supplies, especially with declining investments in traditional energy sector.
According to data from French radio station "RMC," every dollar decrease in the barrel price does not directly reflect on the consumer, as the price of a liter of diesel has only decreased by 8 cents despite the barrel falling about $13 since the beginning of the year, due to rising refining and transportation costs.
However, there is a positive side for the European consumer: the drop of the dollar against the euro has reduced the actual cost of oil imports by about 30% since January. The gap between diesel and gasoline prices has widened again, favoring drivers of diesel cars.
Energy experts expect prices in the coming weeks to be about 1.50 EUR for diesel and 1.60 EUR for 95-octane gasoline, compared to 1.63 and 1.73 EUR currently.
The French station "R.M.C" noted that the decrease in oil prices in 2025 has two opposing faces: on one hand, it temporarily relieves pressure on the European consumer. On the other hand, it shows the fragility of the global economy and the slowdown of growth in the biggest industrial economies.
