Khaberni - A recent study has revealed the significant challenges that experts face in predicting outbreaks of the Chikungunya virus.
The disease, which is transmitted by mosquitoes, causes acute fever and chronic joint pain that can last for months. Although it is rarely fatal, it can be very dangerous for newborns and the elderly.
Researchers at the University of Notre Dame conducted a comprehensive analysis of over 80 outbreaks, making it the largest comparative database of its kind, aiding in understanding disease patterns and facilitating the development of future vaccines.
Professor Alex Perkins, a co-author of the study, mentioned that Chikungunya outbreaks are unpredictable in both scale and severity, adding: "A single outbreak might affect just a few people, while another affects tens of thousands under similar circumstances. This makes public health planning and vaccine manufacturing extremely difficult."
Researcher Alexander Mayer, the lead author of the study, explained that analyzing all outbreaks together, rather than individually, helped in identifying potential patterns among the outbreaks, despite the randomness in the results.
Chikungunya virus was first identified in the 1950s, and since then, outbreaks have become more frequent and widespread, yet they remain sporadic and difficult to predict, which complicates the protection of communities.
The study showed that climatic factors such as heat and rainfall are not the most influential factors on the severity of outbreaks. Perkins said: "Climate only helps us to identify potential outbreak areas, but the severity of the disease depends on local conditions such as housing quality, mosquito density, and community response."
It is worth noting that only two vaccines against the Chikungunya virus have received regulatory approval so far, but they are not widely available in the regions most affected by the virus. This highlights the importance of the extensive study, which provides accurate data to guide future vaccine trials and assist health officials in preparing for outbreaks and protecting vulnerable populations.
