Khaberni - The Middle East stands on the threshold of a decisive week, intersecting critical files the region hasn't faced in decades, including President Trump’s Palestinian peace plan, US-Israeli and Iranian tensions, stability crises in the Red Sea, Syria and Lebanon, and more, and the intertwined regional balances. Every move, and every reaction, will have a direct impact on the security and stability of the region. Countries like Jordan, fully aware of the political, economic, and social dimensions, await these delicate moments. Jordan, with its strategic location and role in supporting the Palestinian cause, stands at the heart of these events, overseeing the transformations, prepared for their political, economic, and social repercussions. This week is not just a passing station, but a test of the parties' ability to manage crises and to distinguish between real power and formal diplomacy, making the right decisions at a critical moment, and who will lose their position in the game that governs the future of the Middle East.
The Palestinians in Gaza face an existential test. The fate of the Palestinian cause this week is linked to the reactions of the faction leaders in Gaza, and the Palestinian Authority. Rejection of the plan will lead to military escalation, and increase the pressure on neighboring countries. Partial acceptance could allow the reorganization of the Palestinian leadership and rebuilding of international trust, amidst continued internal and external challenges.
The coming week will reveal whether there is room for partial settlement, or if escalation will be the only path taken by the Palestinian factions, which will determine the shape of regional and international relations in the coming months. Regardless of the choice made by the Palestinians in Gaza, its consequences will reach all neighboring countries and will test the Arab parties’ ability to manage crises. The most likely scenario is partial rejection (partial acceptance), with readiness for international pressure on the Palestinian leadership to achieve a limited settlement. Whatever choice is made by the movement, its consequences will be immediate for the entire region.
Iran faces a delicate balance between sticking to its regional capabilities and protecting its interior from potential civil protests. Any military attack by the US or Israel on nuclear facilities will lead to a regional confrontation including the Gulf, Iraq, and Lebanon, accompanied by a rise in oil and gas prices globally. Meanwhile, withdrawal and compliance with international sanctions will increase internal economic pressure while maintaining limited political influence in the region.
Iranian tensions are not far from the Gulf and Jordan, where they will directly reflect on market stability and energy, and on the regional countries’ ability to manage crises. The Gulf will be forced to manage a delicate balance between putting pressure on Iran and maintaining internal stability, and preserving global energy security. Any Iranian escalation will directly affect energy markets and investments in the region, while internal stability remains a priority to conserve economic and political capabilities. The stability of the Gulf will depend on the ability to adapt to regional changes.
In Syria, the internal conflict continues, and any Iranian or Palestinian escalation may reactivate armed militias and increase pressure on the fragile state. Lebanon faces ongoing economic and political crises, making it vulnerable to any regional effects, especially with continued tensions with Israel and activity from Iran-backed militias.
Jordan faces a dual challenge, protecting its internal security and managing the refugee dossier, while maintaining its strategic relationships with major powers and the Gulf countries. Any regional escalation will place it under double pressure, requiring high adaptability to each regional transformation, and preserving a balance between regional pressures and national interests. Jordan cannot be excluded from being a key player in managing the Palestinian crisis, and in standing at the crossroads of international and regional interests. The wisdom of the King alone will determine the protection of vital interests.
In this context, Azm Party believes that Jordan stands today before a delicate moment that requires clear vision, steadfast stance, and full alignment with the supreme national interest. The party reaffirms that the official Jordanian position, led by His Majesty the King, has always been a safety valve in dealing with major crises, and that Jordanian wisdom and balance are the first line of defense for regional stability. The party emphasizes that the economic and social challenges that may accompany any regional escalation are only addressed through reliance on honesty, transparency, and achievement, away from populism that has weakened institutions. Therefore, Azm Party stands behind the official position, calling for rejuvenation in public administration and media based on competence rather than heritage or formal swapping, and for the swift implementation of the royal directives in a practical manner, to strengthen Jordan’s interior from the repercussions of these transformations, and enhance the state's ability to interact with its surroundings from a position of strength, not reactivity.
However, the political, economic, and social impacts in the region are present, with a likelihood of redrawing regional alliances and pressures on local systems to manage their internal files exists and is strong.
Economically, tensions will lead to disruptions in...
